Pete Kozma

The Cardinals and Nationals are currently playing Game 3 of their NLDS. The series is tied 1-1. The Cards are leading 5-0 after six innings.

As I am watching the game, I pull up the Outliar Leaderboards, and see something that requires further research. Pete Kozma played in three fantasy matchups at the end of the regular season. That does not meet Outliar’s sample size requirements, so the published Leaderboards do not contain this information. That said, he put up the following Outliar Triple Slash

  • .243 / .291 / .402

meaning that he hit at that line or better in all three weeks that he played.

Here are the names of some full-time players who put up similar Outliar adjusted lines:

  • Miguel Cabrera – .246 / .291 / .422
  • Ryan Braun – .248 / .288 / .419

I am in no way trying to draw a comparison between Pete Kozma and the reigning NL MVP or AL Triple Crown winner. I am trying to say that Pete Kozma hit very well in his September call up.

This made me want to investigate and summarize his minor league career for you. I will do that now.

All counting stats are converted to a 150-game pace.

Age Level G AVG OBP SLG R-150 HR-150 RBI-150 SB-150
19 Rk, A- 42 0.233 0.313 0.342 75 7 39 14
20 A, A+ 123 0.258 0.337 0.361 76 6 61 15
21 A+, AA 131 0.231 0.300 0.323 69 7 52 6
22 AA 132 0.243 0.314 0.384 78 15 82 15
23 AAA 112 0.214 0.277 0.289 64 4 63 3
24 AAA 131 0.232 0.290 0.355 70 13 72 8

 

Were you to standardly deviate these stats, Pete Kozma may look like this type of a player (meaning that his average performance may range from High to Low):

 

  AVG OBP SLG R-150 HR-150 RBI-150 SB-150
High 0.251 0.318 0.376 76 11 72 14
Low 0.220 0.281 0.309 68 6 51 6

 

It may seem obvious that this tempers my excitement somewhat. The High line is rosterable at shortstop, but nothing to get excited about, really.

The lowish AVG and OBP probably mean that he would be slotted at 8 in a NL lineup (or maybe 9 if LaRussa comes out of retirement), which would decimate his expected R & RBI production.

One other consideration is that he has played his AAA games in the high-altitude PCL, and still put up just .223 / .286 / .324 there. All three of those numbers are lower than his small-sample Outliar adjusted line.

The verdict, for me, is that Kozma has a small-sample inflated MLB line and nothing more. Thanks to B-R.com for the minor league stats.

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